Best CS2 Cases to Open by Expected Value
44 cases
Every Counter-Strike 2 weapon case we can price honestly, ranked by how much of your opening cost you statistically get back. EV multiplies Valve’s published tier odds by wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Dopplers averaged across phases), then subtracts nothing — the cost column already shows the case plus the $2.49 key.
Every case returns less than it costs — that is the design, not bad luck. The ranking tells you which case burns the least per opening and what its chase drop is worth. Open a case to see its full tier-by-tier breakdown.
Top 44
Updated 2 h ago Case Opening cost EV vs cost EV Return
#1 
eSports 2013 Winter Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $8.52 · Return 66% $12.98 -34% $8.52 66% #2 
Sealed Dead Hand Terminal Top drop: Sport Gloves (Ultra Violent) · $1,048.76 EV $1.75 · Return 63% $2.77 -37% $1.75 63% #3 
CS:GO Weapon Case 2 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $12.07 · Return 58% $20.81 -42% $12.07 58% #4 
Operation Wildfire Case Top drop: Bowie Knife (Crimson Web) · $1,324.28 EV $2.87 · Return 57% $5.06 -43% $2.87 57% #5 
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $3.76 · Return 56% $6.66 -44% $3.76 56% #6 
Prisma Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $992.51 EV $1.98 · Return 56% $3.53 -44% $1.98 56% #7 
CS:GO Weapon Case 3 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $8.07 · Return 56% $14.40 -44% $8.07 56% #8 
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $3.24 · Return 56% $5.80 -44% $3.24 56% #9 
Chroma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,744.74 EV $3.25 · Return 56% $5.84 -44% $3.25 56% #10 
Gamma Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,166.85 EV $2.76 · Return 53% $5.18 -47% $2.76 53% #11 
Gamma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,166.85 EV $2.76 · Return 53% $5.22 -47% $2.76 53% #12 
Glove Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $4,668.78 EV $6.08 · Return 53% $11.57 -47% $6.08 53% #13 
eSports 2014 Summer Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $6.70 · Return 52% $12.88 -48% $6.70 52% #14 
Shattered Web Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $560.16 EV $3.27 · Return 52% $6.30 -48% $3.27 52% #15 
Operation Hydra Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $4,668.78 EV $14.34 · Return 51% $28.01 -49% $14.34 51% #16 
Chroma 3 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,744.74 EV $2.79 · Return 50% $5.55 -50% $2.79 50% #17 
Revolver Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $2.53 · Return 50% $5.06 -50% $2.53 50% #18 
Chroma Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,744.74 EV $3.42 · Return 49% $6.95 -51% $3.42 49% #19 
Prisma 2 Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $992.51 EV $1.69 · Return 48% $3.49 -52% $1.69 48% #20 
Winter Offensive Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $5.48 · Return 48% $11.38 -52% $5.48 48% #21 
Spectrum Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $3,174.24 EV $2.74 · Return 48% $5.71 -52% $2.74 48% #22 
Falchion Case Top drop: Falchion Knife (Fade) · $263.34 EV $1.87 · Return 48% $3.92 -52% $1.87 48% #23 
Shadow Case Top drop: Shadow Daggers (Fade) · $200.69 EV $1.87 · Return 47% $3.93 -53% $1.87 47% #24 
Horizon Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $902.74 EV $1.85 · Return 47% $3.94 -53% $1.85 47% #25 
Operation Broken Fang Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $629.73 EV $3.56 · Return 47% $7.61 -53% $3.56 47% #26 
Huntsman Weapon Case Top drop: Huntsman Knife (Fade) · $354.49 EV $4.42 · Return 46% $9.55 -54% $4.42 46% #27 
Operation Breakout Weapon Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Fade) · $2,443.40 EV $4.37 · Return 46% $9.57 -54% $4.37 46% #28 
Spectrum 2 Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $3,174.24 EV $2.39 · Return 45% $5.25 -55% $2.39 45% #29 
Danger Zone Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $902.74 EV $1.54 · Return 44% $3.46 -56% $1.54 44% #30 
Snakebite Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $629.73 EV $1.24 · Return 44% $2.80 -56% $1.24 44% #31 
Dreams & Nightmares Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $2,060.77 EV $1.38 · Return 41% $3.41 -59% $1.38 41% #32 
Operation Riptide Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $2,060.77 EV $3.87 · Return 40% $9.60 -60% $3.87 40% #33 
Gallery Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $172.54 EV $1.21 · Return 39% $3.08 -61% $1.21 39% #34 
Fever Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Doppler) · $738.62 EV $1.18 · Return 38% $3.07 -62% $1.18 38% #35 
CS20 Case Top drop: Classic Knife (Fade) · $306.32 EV $1.25 · Return 38% $3.26 -62% $1.25 38% #36 
eSports 2013 Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $16.03 · Return 37% $43.27 -63% $16.03 37% #37 
Sealed Genesis Terminal Top drop: AK-47 (The Oligarch) · $59.40 EV $0.891 · Return 35% $2.54 -65% $0.891 35% #38 
Recoil Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $629.73 EV $0.938 · Return 35% $2.70 -65% $0.938 35% #39 
Operation Bravo Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $18.64 · Return 34% $54.25 -66% $18.64 34% #40 
Clutch Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $687.53 EV $0.958 · Return 33% $2.90 -67% $0.958 33% #41 
CS:GO Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.13 EV $34.63 · Return 33% $106.24 -67% $34.63 33% #42 
Revolution Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $687.53 EV $0.851 · Return 32% $2.65 -68% $0.851 32% #43 
Fracture Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $560.16 EV $0.866 · Return 30% $2.87 -70% $0.866 30% #44 
Kilowatt Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $172.54 EV $0.710 · Return 27% $2.59 -73% $0.710 27% EV = Valve tier odds × wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Doppler averaged across phases) · Opening cost = case median + $2.49 key · How the math works → · How we price →