Best CS2 Cases to Open by Expected Value
44 cases
Every Counter-Strike 2 weapon case we can price honestly, ranked by how much of your opening cost you statistically get back. EV multiplies Valve’s published tier odds by wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Dopplers averaged across phases), then subtracts nothing — the cost column already shows the case plus the $2.49 key.
Every case returns less than it costs — that is the design, not bad luck. The ranking tells you which case burns the least per opening and what its chase drop is worth. Open a case to see its full tier-by-tier breakdown.
Top 44
Updated 2 d ago Case Opening cost EV vs cost EV Return
#1 
CS:GO Weapon Case 2 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $17.58 · Return 68% $25.67 -32% $17.58 68% #2 
Sealed Dead Hand Terminal Top drop: Sport Gloves (Ultra Violent) · $1,471.13 EV $2.31 · Return 67% $3.44 -33% $2.31 67% #3 
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $4.14 · Return 64% $6.45 -36% $4.14 64% #4 
Operation Wildfire Case Top drop: Bowie Knife (Fade) · $292.50 EV $3.72 · Return 64% $5.82 -36% $3.72 64% #5 
Prisma Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $1,091.30 EV $2.39 · Return 62% $3.84 -38% $2.39 62% #6 
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $5.03 · Return 61% $8.22 -39% $5.03 61% #7 
CS:GO Weapon Case 3 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $9.12 · Return 60% $15.14 -40% $9.12 60% #8 
eSports 2013 Winter Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $13.72 · Return 59% $23.16 -41% $13.72 59% #9 
Chroma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,573.28 EV $3.67 · Return 59% $6.24 -41% $3.67 59% #10 
eSports 2014 Summer Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $9.63 · Return 58% $16.50 -42% $9.63 58% #11 
Falchion Case Top drop: Falchion Knife (Fade) · $273.40 EV $2.39 · Return 58% $4.12 -42% $2.39 58% #12 
Winter Offensive Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $7.22 · Return 57% $12.69 -43% $7.22 57% #13 
Operation Hydra Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $5,799.26 EV $19.48 · Return 57% $34.38 -43% $19.48 57% #14 
Gamma Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,300.02 EV $3.17 · Return 56% $5.62 -44% $3.17 56% #15 
Gamma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,300.02 EV $3.07 · Return 56% $5.47 -44% $3.07 56% #16 
Revolver Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $2.87 · Return 55% $5.25 -45% $2.87 55% #17 
Chroma 3 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,573.28 EV $3.19 · Return 55% $5.84 -45% $3.19 55% #18 
Horizon Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $918.72 EV $2.24 · Return 54% $4.11 -46% $2.24 54% #19 
Chroma Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,573.28 EV $3.95 · Return 54% $7.32 -46% $3.95 54% #20 
Shadow Case Top drop: Shadow Daggers (Fade) · $222.99 EV $2.27 · Return 54% $4.24 -46% $2.27 54% #21 
Spectrum Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $3,261.43 EV $3.12 · Return 52% $6.04 -48% $3.12 52% #22 
Shattered Web Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $600.60 EV $4.15 · Return 51% $8.08 -49% $4.15 51% #23 
Glove Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $5,799.26 EV $8.89 · Return 51% $17.44 -49% $8.89 51% #24 
Snakebite Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $728.95 EV $1.52 · Return 51% $2.98 -49% $1.52 51% #25 
Prisma 2 Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $1,091.30 EV $1.90 · Return 50% $3.83 -50% $1.90 50% #26 
Operation Broken Fang Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $728.95 EV $4.49 · Return 49% $9.08 -51% $4.49 49% #27 
Spectrum 2 Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $3,261.43 EV $2.60 · Return 49% $5.35 -51% $2.60 49% #28 
Danger Zone Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $918.72 EV $1.83 · Return 48% $3.80 -52% $1.83 48% #29 
Operation Breakout Weapon Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Fade) · $2,478.61 EV $4.86 · Return 47% $10.29 -53% $4.86 47% #30 
Huntsman Weapon Case Top drop: Huntsman Knife (Fade) · $378.90 EV $5.21 · Return 47% $11.14 -53% $5.21 47% #31 
Gallery Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $212.12 EV $1.57 · Return 47% $3.37 -53% $1.57 47% #32 
Fever Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Doppler) · $941.45 EV $1.39 · Return 45% $3.08 -55% $1.39 45% #33 
CS20 Case Top drop: Classic Knife (Fade) · $353.34 EV $1.60 · Return 45% $3.58 -55% $1.60 45% #34 
Dreams & Nightmares Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $2,286.75 EV $1.63 · Return 44% $3.72 -56% $1.63 44% #35 
Sealed Genesis Terminal Top drop: AK-47 (The Oligarch) · $78.92 EV $1.14 · Return 44% $2.59 -56% $1.14 44% #36 
Recoil Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $728.95 EV $1.15 · Return 41% $2.81 -59% $1.15 41% #37 
Revolution Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $872.30 EV $1.08 · Return 39% $2.75 -61% $1.08 39% #38 
Operation Riptide Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $2,286.75 EV $5.00 · Return 39% $12.91 -61% $5.00 39% #39 
Clutch Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $872.30 EV $1.17 · Return 38% $3.10 -62% $1.17 38% #40 
eSports 2013 Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $18.80 · Return 34% $55.10 -66% $18.80 34% #41 
Operation Bravo Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $21.49 · Return 34% $63.57 -66% $21.49 34% #42 
CS:GO Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,014.98 EV $42.99 · Return 34% $127.16 -66% $42.99 34% #43 
Kilowatt Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $212.12 EV $0.898 · Return 34% $2.66 -66% $0.898 34% #44 
Fracture Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $600.60 EV $1.01 · Return 34% $3.01 -66% $1.01 34% EV = Valve tier odds × wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Doppler averaged across phases) · Opening cost = case median + $2.49 key · How the math works → · How we price →