Recoil Case
A weapon case released May 30, 2022: 17 community finishes plus a rare special slot with 24 gloves across 6 models. It is in the active weekly drop pool, so supply is still growing.
Item facts
What's inside & drop odds
41 items41 items: 17 community finishes plus 24 gloves in the rare special slot. Odds are per opening, shared across the items in each tier.
Tile price: the current floor at the cheapest market; the second line is the range across wears. Each tile opens the item page with every wear and market.
Is it worth opening: the math
| Tier | Odds | Avg item value | Adds to EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Special (knife / gloves) | 0.26% | $155.93 | $0.405 |
| Covert | 0.64% | $36.34 | $0.233 |
| Classified | 3.20% | $4.38 | $0.140 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | $0.497 | $0.079 |
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | $0.120 | $0.096 |
Verdict: opening is entertainment, not value. You get back 35% of the opening cost on average, and the rare slot takes ≈ 385 openings to hit. If you want a specific skin, buying it outright is almost always cheaper.
EV = Valve's published tier odds × wear-weighted median asks across markets, 90/10 StatTrak blend, Doppler averaged across phases · How the math works → · How we price →
Recoil Case prices across 23 markets
Selling this skin? See what you’d get →No markets match this filter.
Each price is the total you pay, buyer fees included. The dot shows how well the venue fits your region. How we price →
No markets match this filter.
The number on the right is your net payout after the venue’s seller fee. Where to sell: all venues compared → · How we calculate net payouts → · Scam protection →
Lowest ask · 73 snapshots since Apr 12, 2026 · dashed = a gap over a week
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How the Recoil Case drops and opens
Because Recoil Case, first sold May 30, 2022, is part of the active weekly pool, supply refreshes every week through rank-up drops and the price stays anchored — currently from $0.200 across 23 marketplaces. Rotation out to the rare pool is the usual turning point after which a case starts appreciating; the drop-pool registry keeps the dated history. Drop-pool registry →
Opening requires a $2.49 key from the in-game store: since 2019 keys cannot be traded or resold, so there is no cheaper key, and the case itself is usually cheaper on a marketplace than waiting for a drop. Expected value per opening is $0.954 against a $2.71 cost — on average 35% comes back, before selling fees. If you are after one specific skin, buying it outright wins, and every tile above links to its own price comparison.
From this page's data: 41 items priced live, the 28-day median case price moved -19%. All prices recompute with every data snapshot.
Recoil Case questions
What is inside the Recoil Case?
17 community finishes from Mil-Spec to Covert, topped by USP-S (Printstream) and AWP (Chromatic Aberration), plus a rare special slot: 24 glove variants across 6 models. The full priced list is above on this page.
What are the rare special odds?
0.26% per opening, about 1 per 385 openings on average. At $2.71 per opening the average path to the rare slot costs roughly $1,043.35.
How much is the key?
$2.49 in the in-game store. Keys cannot be bought on the market or traded: the price is the same for everyone.
Is the Recoil Case worth opening?
Not by the math: each $2.71 opening returns $0.954 on average, so about 35% of the money comes back. Open for fun, buy skins directly.
Will the Recoil Case be discontinued?
It has been in the active pool since Jul 1, 2022. Valve does not announce rotations ahead; dated pool changes are tracked in the drop-pool registry. Drop-pool registry →
How do I get one without opening it?
It drops free from weekly profile rank-ups, and buying is cheapest from $0.200 on third-party markets: the comparison table is above.
Is opening cases legal in my country?
Loot-box rules differ by country: Belgium treats paid loot boxes as gambling and Valve disabled case opening there, while several other countries require odds disclosure or age gates. If opening is restricted where you live, buying items directly stays available. Responsible trading guide →