Operation Wildfire Case
A weapon case released Jan 19, 2016: 16 community finishes plus a rare special slot with 13 knives across 1 model. It has left the active drop pool and now drops only rarely, so supply is shrinking.
Item facts
What's inside & drop odds
29 items29 items: 16 community finishes plus 13 knives in the rare special slot. Odds are per opening, shared across the items in each tier.
Tile price: the current floor at the cheapest market; the second line is the range across wears. Each tile opens the item page with every wear and market.
Is it worth opening: the math
| Tier | Odds | Avg item value | Adds to EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Special (knife / gloves) avg over 12 of 13 priced | 0.26% | $209.83 | $0.546 |
| Covert | 0.64% | $91.72 | $0.587 |
| Classified | 3.20% | $16.92 | $0.541 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | $3.10 | $0.495 |
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | $0.902 | $0.721 |
Verdict: opening is entertainment, not value. You get back 57% of the opening cost on average, and the rare slot takes ≈ 385 openings to hit. If you want a specific skin, buying it outright is almost always cheaper.
EV = Valve's published tier odds × wear-weighted median asks across markets, 90/10 StatTrak blend, Doppler averaged across phases · How the math works → · How we price →
Operation Wildfire Case prices across 25 markets
Selling this skin? See what you’d get →No markets match this filter.
Each price is the total you pay, buyer fees included. The dot shows how well the venue fits your region. How we price →
No markets match this filter.
The number on the right is your net payout after the venue’s seller fee. Where to sell: all venues compared → · How we calculate net payouts → · Scam protection →
Lowest ask · 73 snapshots since Apr 12, 2026 · dashed = a gap over a week
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How the Operation Wildfire Case drops and opens
The weekly drop for Operation Wildfire Case, first sold Jan 19, 2016, ended when it moved to the rare pool; fresh copies are now scarce and the market recycles existing stock — currently from $2.18 across 25 marketplaces. Scarcity has historically pushed retired cases upward over time — the drop-pool registry records when each rotation happened. Drop-pool registry →
The key comes only from the in-game store at $2.49 (untradable since 2019), while the case itself is normally cheaper bought on a marketplace than farmed as a drop. Per opening the expected return is $2.89 on a $5.04 spend — roughly 57% back before fees. Buying a specific skin outright beats opening for it; every tile above links to prices.
From this page's data: 29 items priced live, the 28-day median case price moved -14%. All prices recompute with every data snapshot.
Operation Wildfire Case questions
What is inside the Operation Wildfire Case?
16 community finishes from Mil-Spec to Covert, topped by AK-47 (Fuel Injector) and M4A4 (The Battlestar), plus a rare special slot: 13 knife variants across 1 model. The full priced list is above on this page.
What are the knife odds?
0.26% per opening, about 1 per 385 openings on average. At $5.04 per opening the average path to the rare slot costs roughly $1,940.40.
How much is the key?
$2.49 in the in-game store. Keys cannot be bought on the market or traded: the price is the same for everyone.
Is the Operation Wildfire Case worth opening?
The numbers say no: $2.89 expected return against $5.04 spent per opening (57%). If the goal is a skin rather than the thrill, direct purchase is cheaper.
Will the Operation Wildfire Case be discontinued?
It already rotated out of the active pool (rare pool as of our Apr 12, 2026 registry snapshot). It still drops rarely — cases never leave the game entirely. Drop-pool registry →
How do I get one without opening it?
Buying it is the practical route — from $2.18 across the markets in the table above. It no longer drops weekly.
Is opening cases legal in my country?
Loot-box rules differ by country: Belgium treats paid loot boxes as gambling and Valve disabled case opening there, while several other countries require odds disclosure or age gates. If opening is restricted where you live, buying items directly stays available. Responsible trading guide →