Shadow Case
A weapon case released 2015-9-15: 16 community finishes plus a rare special slot with 13 knives across 1 model. It has left the active drop pool and now drops only rarely, so supply is shrinking.
Item facts
What's inside & drop odds
29 items29 items: 16 community finishes plus 13 knives in the rare special slot. Odds are per opening, shared across the items in each tier.
Tile price: the current floor at the cheapest market; the second line is the range across wears. Each tile opens the item page with every wear and market.
Is it worth opening: the math
| Tier | Odds | Avg item value | Adds to EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Special (knife / gloves) avg over 12 of 13 priced | 0.26% | $75.81 | $0.197 |
| Covert | 0.64% | $78.44 | $0.502 |
| Classified | 3.20% | $14.49 | $0.464 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | $2.14 | $0.341 |
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | $0.479 | $0.382 |
Verdict: opening is entertainment, not value. You get back 47% of the opening cost on average, and the rare slot takes ≈ 385 openings to hit. If you want a specific skin, buying it outright is almost always cheaper.
EV = Valve's published tier odds × wear-weighted median asks across markets, 90/10 StatTrak blend, Doppler averaged across phases · How the math works → · How we price →
Shadow Case prices across 24 markets
Selling this skin? See what you’d get →No markets match this filter.
Each price is the total you pay, buyer fees included. The dot shows how well the venue fits your region. How we price →
No markets match this filter.
The number on the right is your net payout after the venue’s seller fee. Where to sell: all venues compared → · How we calculate net payouts → · Scam protection →
Lowest ask · 73 snapshots since Apr 12, 2026 · dashed = a gap over a week
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How the Shadow Case drops and opens
New drops of Shadow Case, first sold 2015-9-15, are rare-pool only these days: the case is out of the weekly rotation, and the market runs on old stock — currently from $1.26 across 24 marketplaces. As that stock thins, prices of retired cases historically climb; dated pool changes live in the drop-pool registry. Drop-pool registry →
Opening requires a $2.49 key from the in-game store: since 2019 keys cannot be traded or resold, so there is no cheaper key, and the case itself is usually cheaper on a marketplace than waiting for a drop. Expected value per opening is $1.89 against a $3.99 cost — on average 47% comes back, before selling fees. If you are after one specific skin, buying it outright wins, and every tile above links to its own price comparison.
From this page's data: 29 items priced live, the 28-day median case price moved -7.8%. All prices recompute with every data snapshot.
Shadow Case questions
What is inside the Shadow Case?
16 community finishes from Mil-Spec to Covert, topped by USP-S (Kill Confirmed) and M4A1-S (Golden Coil), plus a rare special slot: 13 knife variants across 1 model. The full priced list is above on this page.
What are the knife odds?
0.26% per opening, about 1 per 385 openings on average. At $3.99 per opening the average path to the rare slot costs roughly $1,534.23.
How much is the key?
$2.49 in the in-game store. Keys cannot be bought on the market or traded: the price is the same for everyone.
Is the Shadow Case worth opening?
No by expected value: $1.89 back per $3.99 opening, or 47% of the cost. Treat opening as entertainment, not as a way to acquire skins.
Will the Shadow Case be discontinued?
It already rotated out of the active pool (rare pool as of our Apr 12, 2026 registry snapshot). It still drops rarely — cases never leave the game entirely. Drop-pool registry →
How do I get one without opening it?
Buying it is the practical route — from $1.26 across the markets in the table above. It no longer drops weekly.
Is opening cases legal in my country?
Loot-box rules differ by country: Belgium treats paid loot boxes as gambling and Valve disabled case opening there, while several other countries require odds disclosure or age gates. If opening is restricted where you live, buying items directly stays available. Responsible trading guide →